Endgame

September 25, 2022 The war in Ukraine is fast approaching the moment of truth -- the series of events that will tell us what the eventual outcome is likely to be. Putin's situation is desperate, and is getting worse by the hour: while the mobilization didn't create the social explosion many analysts were predicting, it … Continue reading Endgame

To annex, or not to annex, that is (maybe?) the question

September 19, 2022 This morning I woke up to the entire Russian and Ukrainian blogosphere/Telegram abuzz with news from the banana republics Donetsk and Luhansk. It all apparently started when the Civic Chamber of Luhansk demanded from the "head of LNR" Pasechnik that the government immediately conduct a referendum about joining the Russian Federation. Then … Continue reading To annex, or not to annex, that is (maybe?) the question

The Russian attacks on infrastructure and the Dnipro River dams

September 18, 2022 Over the past week, the Russians deliberately targeted the dam at Kryvyi Ryh and managed to damage it sufficiently to damage over 200 houses, turn some streets into canals, destroy some bridges downstream, and temporarily raise the level of Inhulets River, in an apparent attempt to slow down ZSU operations. Back in … Continue reading The Russian attacks on infrastructure and the Dnipro River dams

The ZSU Offensives in Kharkiv and Kherson, some comparisons

September 17, 2022 Thanks to Nikolay Marinov, who asked me what I thought the chances of taking Kherson soon are -- I decided to write a slightly expanded version of my answer. The first thing to understand that the geography in the two regions is very different. In the north (Kharkiv-Izyum) the terrain allows smaller … Continue reading The ZSU Offensives in Kharkiv and Kherson, some comparisons