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Kremlin spokesman Peskov: "That wretch over there is writing all sorts of garbage about us."

Atrocities and the Slow Death of Russia, Part 2

August 4, 2022 In my previous post, I discussed two recent events that speak to the barbaric nature of this war, especially as practiced by the Russians. (Incidentally, you can read a fascinating report about how The Insider and Bellingcat discovered the identity of the perpetrator in the castration video and the location of the …

Atrocities and the Slow Death of Russia

August 3, 2022 Friends: I am writing another somewhat long-ish blog post because Facebook has banned my account yet again for 30 days (again, from the Bulgarian side, which really seems to be going after any accounts that seem pro-Ukrainian). I will give you a quick front update before moving on to some interesting strategic …

The Fifth Month of the War in Ukraine

July 19, 2022 Hi Friends. It has been over a month since the last blog entry, but this was not because I stopped writing -- all my posts (multiple per day sometimes) went to Facebook -- but because the developments were so incremental, they would not have been of general interest. We have now accumulated …

The war grinds on while Russia’s near-abroad erupts in turmoil

June 20, 2022 It has been several days since my last update, so it's time for some analysis of the war in Ukraine and its global repercussions. As usual, we begin with an operational update, starting from the North, with Kharkiv. Unfortunately, the RFA has made some small advances toward the city, which has now …

Putin’s boa constrictor strategy vs West Cunctator

June 16, 2022 It has been over a week since the last war update, and there is not a whole lot new to report in front developments. There have been some predictable events as the war nears the end of its fourth month -- exhaustion is setting in on both sides, and right now the …

War of attrition and maneuvers in the succession struggle

June 8, 2022 We begin, as has now become usual, with an operational update. Please bear in mind that in this war of attrition, daily developments should be interpreted with caution -- breakthroughs are unlikely for either side, towns and villages are likely to change hands multiple times, and the important thing is to keep …

Should you pray for Putin’s demise?

June 6, 2022 The "standard narrative" about the war seems to be that Putin single-handedly made a terrible mistake based on misleading information about the state of his military, the situation in Ukraine, and the expected reaction of the West. I have tried to explain why some of these mistakes might have been unavoidable (I …

To victory and beyond?

June 3, 2022 Reading the Western press with its coverage of the war in Ukraine is like riding an emotional rollercoaster: from depth of desperation (Ukraine is about to lose) to unwarranted euphoria (Ukraine has nearly won), through periods of "nothing seems to be happening", and then again the ups and downs of "Russia is …

Fighting stalls as politics heat up: Will the West hold the line?

June 2, 2022 As usual, we start with an operational update, going clockwise from the north, starting with the most intense situation in Luhansk. The Russians threw everything but the kitchen sink in their offensive designed to occupy Luhansk Region to its administrative borders. Some information leaked that Putin had given the army until June …

Russia is bogging down, schism in the Church

May 29, 2022 I did not write any updates for a few days because, like everyone else, I am in a holding pattern -- waiting to see when the Russians will call it quits on the Easter Offensive, and whether they will achieve any of the much-reduced goals of the invasion. There have been very …