Russia is bogging down, schism in the Church

May 29, 2022 I did not write any updates for a few days because, like everyone else, I am in a holding pattern -- waiting to see when the Russians will call it quits on the Easter Offensive, and whether they will achieve any of the much-reduced goals of the invasion. There have been very …

Western Europe is stabbing Ukraine in the back

May 25, 2022 For all their pious platitudes, the governments of Germany, France, and Italy are actively sabotaging the military aid to Ukraine, and have effectively stabbed Kyiv in the back. I have written previously about this danger, but now it has become an open and clear position that is being articulated with increasing vehemence …

War Update: fighting toward uti possidetis or Ukrainian victory

May 23, 2022 The Russian offensives have run out of steam, again. In the north, their counter-attack in the area around Kharkiv bogged down at Ternova. This still leaves the crucial transport hub of Vovchansk in Russian hands, so the Ukrainians are likely trying to restart their own attack to capture it. In the center, …

War Update: Russians breaking through in Luhansk

May 20, 2022 As I have been reporting for a while, the major thrust of phase II for the Russians has been to isolate and destroy the pocket of Ukrainian forces in Luhansk region fortified around Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. The Russians had been making steady gains there, albeit slowly, and against fierce resistance. The grind, …

Collective West, now is not the time to go wobbly

May 19, 2022 As I have written previously, phase II of the war -- the "Easter Offensive" of the Russians -- is all but over. The Ukrainians have liberated most of the area around Kharkiv -- and, apparently, the Russian commander in charge of taking that city has been dismissed -- with some of the …

The contraction of Russia’s war aims in Eastern Ukraine, March through June

May 15, 2022 All three of the western encirclement attempts failed, and now the Russians are throwing everything they have into the last-ditch attempt to finish the conquest of Luhansk region (they control about 90% of it already). They seem to have abandoned -- for now -- the idea of getting to the administrative border …

Putin’s useful idiots — unbelievably, still in Berlin and Paris

May 14, 2022 As the second phase draws to a close without a strategic breakthrough for either side (which, under the circumstances, is a victory for Ukraine since it was the Russians who were supposed to achieve their multiple goals with the vaunted Easter Offensive), the next steps are coming into focus. Putin has reportedly …

War Update: Snake Island, missiles, and Moldova

May 14, 2022 First, some bad news: confusion about Blue Spear missiles. The early reports about Estonia transferring Israeli-made Blue Spear (5G SSM) land-to-sea missile systems to Ukraine indicated that it had obtained the permission of the Israeli government to do so. Israel's Defense Ministry denies it. The Estonian government denied that it had asked …

South Ossetia about to become a problem?

May 14, 2022 The President of South Ossetia Bibilov signed a decree setting up a referendum to join Russia for July 17. As he put it in his Telegram channel, "We're going home." Joining their neighboring North Ossetia as part of Russia has been the goal for a while, but it had been put on …

The “Freedom for Russia” Legion

May 14, 2022 Early in the war, we heard about some Russian troops who had crossed over to the Ukrainians and offered to fight against the invasion and Putin's regime. At the time, they were being trained by the Ukrainians in the use of the weapons of the Ukrainian armed forces, and now we have …