War Update: Snake Island, missiles, and Moldova

May 14, 2022

First, some bad news: confusion about Blue Spear missiles.

The early reports about Estonia transferring Israeli-made Blue Spear (5G SSM) land-to-sea missile systems to Ukraine indicated that it had obtained the permission of the Israeli government to do so. Israel’s Defense Ministry denies it. The Estonian government denied that it had asked for permission.

That sucks. These missiles are pretty damn good, and better than the Ukrainian Neptunes.

These missiles would mostly neutralize the Black Sea fleet, and relieve the pressure on Odessa.

The danger to the port city, and the entire Black Sea coastline, remains. The Russians have been trying — desperately and recklessly — to put missile systems on Snake Island, which is key to any amphibious operations. (Unverified reports state they have succeeded.) With the cover provided by installations on the island, the Russians can reinforce their troops in Transnistria, and open a new front.

They have two possibilities from there: strike toward Odessa or, first, take over Moldova. The situation in Moldova is volatile and the assessments I have seen state that it will fall without much resistance. (Yes, I realize the irony of relying on such assessments.) US intel sounded the alarm that Putin intends to do this, and the military will, of course, attempt to fulfill his wishes… if they gain Snake Island.

So this is an area to watch out for right now alongside the borders of Luhansk region (Severodonetsk), where the Russians are still attempting to complete the encirclement (not much progress).

• Russo-Ukrainian War 2022