Some updates about potential mobilization in Russia

May 14, 2022 As I reported earlier, the Russians are running out of steam in their phase II of the war. Apparently, members of the General Staff have delivered to Putin a report, where they argue that its goals are unlikely to be achieved. Putin dismissed the report but did not punish the officers. The …

Russia’s hidden mobilization is in full swing

May 13, 2022 Given Russia's staggering losses in Ukraine, most observers have been expecting Putin to start mobilizing more troops. Most of the conversation has been about the political viability and military value of full or partial mobilization, but we have had information now for a while that the government has increased recruitment efforts under …

The second phase of the war is nearing its end

May 13, 2022 The goals of the Russian army in this phase were (1) to occupy ORDLO to the administrative borders, (2) to stabilize the land bridge to Crimea by securing Mariupol (which also gives them full control of the Azov Sea coast), (3) prepare Kherson for declaration of an "independent republic" (or, annexation), and …

Russia’s aims/justifications for the war, evolving

May 9, 2022 I have spent some time talking about Russia's changing aims in its war on Ukraine, but perhaps we should take some stock of the evolving justifications for the war. As you will recall, in his declaration of war -- sorry, "special operation" -- Putin talked about Ukraine being a fictitious country, and …

Brief flare of truth in Russian media

May 9, 2022 Two journalists at lenta.ru published over 10 articles critical of the war and the Russian government. The articles were quickly removed -- but not before getting archived -- and the journalists were fired although the publication claimed that the site had been hacked. One of journalists commented that there had been no …

Russia is lighting a fuse in the Middle East

May 8, 2022 A few days ago I wrote about Russia baiting Israel. Remember the bizarre statements by Lavrov about Hitler's Jewish roots and the Jews being the worst anti-semites? Remember how the Foreign Ministry doubled down on those a day later? Remember how Zakharova talked about Israeli commandos fighting shoulder to shoulder with the …

Russia’s Phase II of the War — How is it going?

May 7, 2022 After the failure of the Blitzkrieg, and possibly pressure from the military, Putin scaled back the goals of the invasion. We do not know what they are precisely aside from the bland statement that they intend to liberate Donbas. There are at least three possible aims, from the minimum to maximum: 1) …

Ukrainian and Russian Nazi collaborators in WWII

May 6, 2022 Quite a lot of Russian propaganda centers on Stepan Bandera, with the derogative "banderovtsi" (Banderistas) being used interchangeably with fascists and Nazis. (Kadyrov's fighters in Ukraine are hunting for Bandera, and just recently claimed to have killed him. He died in 1959.) This is not a post about Bandera but about the …

Ultranationalists (Nazis/fascists) in Ukrainian elections

May 6, 2022 With all the ink being spilled about Nazis/fascists in Ukraine, perhaps we should take a look at how many actual votes their parties have managed to garner in various elections. There are several ultra-nationalist parties that could conceivably be labeled in this way by opponents: Svoboda (All-Ukrainian Union 'Freedom'): founded in 1995, …

How to lie like a pro: Lavrov to China

May 5, 2022 Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov gave an interview to the Chinese news agency Xinhua. Here are some interesting tidbits, with commentary. What is at the root of the Ukrainian crisis?NATO’s reckless expansion to the East was a key component of those actions, despite the political obligations to the Soviet leadership on the non-expansion …