The war grinds on while Russia’s near-abroad erupts in turmoil

June 20, 2022 It has been several days since my last update, so it's time for some analysis of the war in Ukraine and its global repercussions. As usual, we begin with an operational update, starting from the North, with Kharkiv. Unfortunately, the RFA has made some small advances toward the city, which has now …

Putin’s boa constrictor strategy vs West Cunctator

June 16, 2022 It has been over a week since the last war update, and there is not a whole lot new to report in front developments. There have been some predictable events as the war nears the end of its fourth month -- exhaustion is setting in on both sides, and right now the …

War of attrition and maneuvers in the succession struggle

June 8, 2022 We begin, as has now become usual, with an operational update. Please bear in mind that in this war of attrition, daily developments should be interpreted with caution -- breakthroughs are unlikely for either side, towns and villages are likely to change hands multiple times, and the important thing is to keep …

Should you pray for Putin’s demise?

June 6, 2022 The "standard narrative" about the war seems to be that Putin single-handedly made a terrible mistake based on misleading information about the state of his military, the situation in Ukraine, and the expected reaction of the West. I have tried to explain why some of these mistakes might have been unavoidable (I …

To victory and beyond?

June 3, 2022 Reading the Western press with its coverage of the war in Ukraine is like riding an emotional rollercoaster: from depth of desperation (Ukraine is about to lose) to unwarranted euphoria (Ukraine has nearly won), through periods of "nothing seems to be happening", and then again the ups and downs of "Russia is …

Fighting stalls as politics heat up: Will the West hold the line?

June 2, 2022 As usual, we start with an operational update, going clockwise from the north, starting with the most intense situation in Luhansk. The Russians threw everything but the kitchen sink in their offensive designed to occupy Luhansk Region to its administrative borders. Some information leaked that Putin had given the army until June …