Putin’s Military Solution?

September 29, 2022 Moscow is preparing for the annexation of the four regions where the Kremlin recently staged the circus act they call "referenda." The demonstration in support of the annexation is set for Sep 30, and the sessions of the Duma and the Federation Council are set for Oct 3 and 4, respectively. It …

Endgame

September 25, 2022 The war in Ukraine is fast approaching the moment of truth -- the series of events that will tell us what the eventual outcome is likely to be. Putin's situation is desperate, and is getting worse by the hour: while the mobilization didn't create the social explosion many analysts were predicting, it …

Who will be mobilized in Russia now?

September 22, 2022 Given the sorry state of the administrative apparatus and the endemic corruption, what are we to expect from the Russian mobilization? Most likely, the numbers will be there. The question is, who the trawling will catch. Here are some categories of people: Zombified patriots: will show up willingly, believing they are defending …

Putin decrees mobilization

September 21, 2022 The war in Ukraine entered a new, and very dangerous, phase. This morning, Putin went on TV with a pre-recorded message and decreed mobilization for Russia. He also indicated that the Kremlin will accept the results of the forthcoming referenda (so annexations will happen), and threatened the West with nuclear weapons. Defense …

To annex, or not to annex, that is (maybe?) the question

September 19, 2022 This morning I woke up to the entire Russian and Ukrainian blogosphere/Telegram abuzz with news from the banana republics Donetsk and Luhansk. It all apparently started when the Civic Chamber of Luhansk demanded from the "head of LNR" Pasechnik that the government immediately conduct a referendum about joining the Russian Federation. Then …

What is the Russian military, really?

September 18, 2022 I am not being sarcastic -- the Russian military, or at least that thing that is currently waging war in Ukraine -- is not what most of us think when they talk about an army. Understanding what that military is will help put talk about recruiting prisoners, sending conscripts, or declaring mobilization …

The Russian attacks on infrastructure and the Dnipro River dams

September 18, 2022 Over the past week, the Russians deliberately targeted the dam at Kryvyi Ryh and managed to damage it sufficiently to damage over 200 houses, turn some streets into canals, destroy some bridges downstream, and temporarily raise the level of Inhulets River, in an apparent attempt to slow down ZSU operations. Back in …

The ZSU Offensives in Kharkiv and Kherson, some comparisons

September 17, 2022 Thanks to Nikolay Marinov, who asked me what I thought the chances of taking Kherson soon are -- I decided to write a slightly expanded version of my answer. The first thing to understand that the geography in the two regions is very different. In the north (Kharkiv-Izyum) the terrain allows smaller …

The imperialists in Russia see red

September 16, 2022 The Russian channels are abuzz with activity -- the crazies have concocted the "peace plan" that Ukraine supposedly delivered to Russia through Erdogan. Here's what these science fiction writers came up with: Removal all of Russian military from territories taken after February 24 2022. Transfer of all gold and foreign currency reserves …

Russian Fascism in Action: Teaching Ukrainian Kids

September 16, 2022 If you wondered why the Ukrainians are working out prison terms for teachers who either came from Russia or are Ukrainians but agreed to teach the Russian curriculum in the occupied territories, this video can explain it better than anything I could have written. In this video, the teacher -- who appears …