The Gerasimov Offensive isn’t “coming” — it’s here

January 30, 2023 (This entry collects, and expands upon, several FB posts I made over the past few days.) Ever since the news about the appointment of Gerasimov, the Chief of Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, to command the Russian forces in Ukraine, everybody has been expecting a large offensive by VSRF. I do …

The turning point in the war happened today

January 24, 2022 Just four days after I worried that the West might fail Ukraine, I can report that it did not happen. In fact, today we are seeing some seismic changes in foreign policy that I consider the turning point in the war: the West committed to Ukrainian victory by sending Western tanks. You …

Western Support & the Gerasimov Offensive

January 20, 2023 The West is at risk of failing Ukraine. It seems strange to write this amid all the hoopla about unprecedented levels of military aid that the collective West has committed to Ukraine, but it's a case of a too little, too late. Or, hopefully, not too late, but late enough to make …

Nuclear Weapons and Ukraine: The Deterrent that Never Was

January 9, 2022 I had drafted this post a while back because I have often heard the argument that "had Ukraine not given up its nuclear weapons, this war would never have happened." It always takes a while to explain why this is not so -- and yes, once again, Mearsheimer was wrong about this …

Send the tanks!

January 7, 2023 Why has the West "suddenly" decided to cross the "red line" with Western-made tracked IFVs (Bradleys, Marders, etc.)? Putin and Lavrov both confirmed what I had been saying forever: Russia is not interested in any peace that does not give it conquered territories -- all that nonsense about NATO expansion and protecting …

Putin wants total war

January 4, 2023 Putin has ordered civilian hospitals to be prepared to accept soldiers wounded in Ukraine for treatment. This means that the Russians are expecting heavy casualties that the military hospitals will not be able to handle. Since heavy casualties usually result from offensive operations, this implies that VSRF will try -- as expected …

Chronicles of Mordor, part 1

Originally on FB, December 20, 2022 - January 3, 2023 A brief synopsis of recent developments in Russia that are pertinent to the war, collected from FB posts I made over the past month or so. Economy & Sanctions Putin is unhappy with the inflation rate in Russia, and as a result Rosstat, the agency …

ZSU’s strike on Makiivka: It’s happened before, and will happen again

Originally on FB, January 2, 2022 By now everyone knows that while Putin and Surovikin were launching their terrorist strikes on Ukrainian cities for 3 days in a row, ZSU attacked numerous Russian depots, HQs, and troop concentrations. While most of the strikes were in Zaporizhzhia, the one people are talking about is the attack …

Russian elites, reform, and the West

January 4, 2022 I have made my position on "off ramps" for Putin very clear since the very beginning: there should be none. But for the Russian elites, the story is more complicated. Putin's rule depends on internal conflicts among the so-called "Kremlin towers" -- that is, among elites organized by various "clans". Putin's strength …