The West is still fighting the wrong war

December 28, 2022 It has now been ten months of war in Ukraine, and the West still seems hell bent on fighting the war it wants the war to be rather than the war it actually has on its hands. Although cautious voices warn about this being a protracted war of attrition -- I have …

Putin’s Military Solution?

September 29, 2022 Moscow is preparing for the annexation of the four regions where the Kremlin recently staged the circus act they call "referenda." The demonstration in support of the annexation is set for Sep 30, and the sessions of the Duma and the Federation Council are set for Oct 3 and 4, respectively. It …

ZSU Counter-Offensive Update

September 13, 2022 The Ukrainians have slowed down a bit, but that's only relative to their breakneck speed over the past week. The counter-offensive continues. Northern Front Kharkiv Oblast: almost entirely liberated. The Russians failed to construct defenses on the left bank of Oskil River, and the Ukrainians have crossed it in several places. Luhansk …

The war grinds on while Russia’s near-abroad erupts in turmoil

June 20, 2022 It has been several days since my last update, so it's time for some analysis of the war in Ukraine and its global repercussions. As usual, we begin with an operational update, starting from the North, with Kharkiv. Unfortunately, the RFA has made some small advances toward the city, which has now …

The contraction of Russia’s war aims in Eastern Ukraine, March through June

May 15, 2022 All three of the western encirclement attempts failed, and now the Russians are throwing everything they have into the last-ditch attempt to finish the conquest of Luhansk region (they control about 90% of it already). They seem to have abandoned -- for now -- the idea of getting to the administrative border …

Russia’s reverse import substitution

May 3, 2022 Here's some dose of reality to the people cheering how Russia is going to come out stronger and better from its fight with the world. The Russian Transportation Ministry has developed a strategy for domestic aviation until 2030. It will cost about 627 billion rubles and its goal is to produce 1,000 …