The turning point in the war happened today

January 24, 2022 Just four days after I worried that the West might fail Ukraine, I can report that it did not happen. In fact, today we are seeing some seismic changes in foreign policy that I consider the turning point in the war: the West committed to Ukrainian victory by sending Western tanks. You …

Western Support & the Gerasimov Offensive

January 20, 2023 The West is at risk of failing Ukraine. It seems strange to write this amid all the hoopla about unprecedented levels of military aid that the collective West has committed to Ukraine, but it's a case of a too little, too late. Or, hopefully, not too late, but late enough to make …

The West is still fighting the wrong war

December 28, 2022 It has now been ten months of war in Ukraine, and the West still seems hell bent on fighting the war it wants the war to be rather than the war it actually has on its hands. Although cautious voices warn about this being a protracted war of attrition -- I have …

Putin’s Military Solution?

September 29, 2022 Moscow is preparing for the annexation of the four regions where the Kremlin recently staged the circus act they call "referenda." The demonstration in support of the annexation is set for Sep 30, and the sessions of the Duma and the Federation Council are set for Oct 3 and 4, respectively. It …

Putin’s boa constrictor strategy vs West Cunctator

June 16, 2022 It has been over a week since the last war update, and there is not a whole lot new to report in front developments. There have been some predictable events as the war nears the end of its fourth month -- exhaustion is setting in on both sides, and right now the …

Western Europe is stabbing Ukraine in the back

May 25, 2022 For all their pious platitudes, the governments of Germany, France, and Italy are actively sabotaging the military aid to Ukraine, and have effectively stabbed Kyiv in the back. I have written previously about this danger, but now it has become an open and clear position that is being articulated with increasing vehemence …

War Update: fighting toward uti possidetis or Ukrainian victory

May 23, 2022 The Russian offensives have run out of steam, again. In the north, their counter-attack in the area around Kharkiv bogged down at Ternova. This still leaves the crucial transport hub of Vovchansk in Russian hands, so the Ukrainians are likely trying to restart their own attack to capture it. In the center, …

Collective West, now is not the time to go wobbly

May 19, 2022 As I have written previously, phase II of the war -- the "Easter Offensive" of the Russians -- is all but over. The Ukrainians have liberated most of the area around Kharkiv -- and, apparently, the Russian commander in charge of taking that city has been dismissed -- with some of the …

Putin’s useful idiots — unbelievably, still in Berlin and Paris

May 14, 2022 As the second phase draws to a close without a strategic breakthrough for either side (which, under the circumstances, is a victory for Ukraine since it was the Russians who were supposed to achieve their multiple goals with the vaunted Easter Offensive), the next steps are coming into focus. Putin has reportedly …