Category: international relations

Walt lectures us on “dispassionate” analysis — maybe he should learn to think

November 29, 2022 God help me, there's another diatribe by Stephen Walt in his house outlet, Foreign Policy, and it's as bad as one has come to expect. This time, the old wine of nonsense he peddles with Mearsheimer & Co. is packaged in a new bottle -- a call for dispassionate analysis. The problem … Continue reading Walt lectures us on “dispassionate” analysis — maybe he should learn to think

Realism without reality: Kupchan in the NYT

November 3, 2022 Another day, and another shoddy analysis of the Russo-Ukrainian War, with appropriately counter-productive policy prescriptions: this time by Charles Kupchan in the New York Times. As usual, I will note problems with logic and evidence in specific parts of the argument. "The war in Ukraine is dangerously escalating." This is the opening … Continue reading Realism without reality: Kupchan in the NYT

The impending loss of Kherson: How will Putin spin it?

October 20, 2022 Two days ago, the Ukrainian military asked all bloggers, YouTubers, and social media personalities to observe radio silence when it comes to events and operations in Kherson Region. The last time they imposed such a media blackout was when the Kharkiv Offensive began. There is, essentially, total compliance with this request, and … Continue reading The impending loss of Kherson: How will Putin spin it?

Endgame

September 25, 2022 The war in Ukraine is fast approaching the moment of truth -- the series of events that will tell us what the eventual outcome is likely to be. Putin's situation is desperate, and is getting worse by the hour: while the mobilization didn't create the social explosion many analysts were predicting, it … Continue reading Endgame

The war grinds on while Russia’s near-abroad erupts in turmoil

June 20, 2022 It has been several days since my last update, so it's time for some analysis of the war in Ukraine and its global repercussions. As usual, we begin with an operational update, starting from the North, with Kharkiv. Unfortunately, the RFA has made some small advances toward the city, which has now … Continue reading The war grinds on while Russia’s near-abroad erupts in turmoil

The contraction of Russia’s war aims in Eastern Ukraine, March through June

The contraction of Russia’s war aims in Eastern Ukraine, March through June

May 15, 2022 All three of the western encirclement attempts failed, and now the Russians are throwing everything they have into the last-ditch attempt to finish the conquest of Luhansk region (they control about 90% of it already). They seem to have abandoned -- for now -- the idea of getting to the administrative border … Continue reading The contraction of Russia’s war aims in Eastern Ukraine, March through June