Western Support & the Gerasimov Offensive

January 20, 2023 The West is at risk of failing Ukraine. It seems strange to write this amid all the hoopla about unprecedented levels of military aid that the collective West has committed to Ukraine, but it's a case of a too little, too late. Or, hopefully, not too late, but late enough to make …

Putin wants total war

January 4, 2023 Putin has ordered civilian hospitals to be prepared to accept soldiers wounded in Ukraine for treatment. This means that the Russians are expecting heavy casualties that the military hospitals will not be able to handle. Since heavy casualties usually result from offensive operations, this implies that VSRF will try -- as expected …

Chronicles of Mordor, part 1

Originally on FB, December 20, 2022 - January 3, 2023 A brief synopsis of recent developments in Russia that are pertinent to the war, collected from FB posts I made over the past month or so. Economy & Sanctions Putin is unhappy with the inflation rate in Russia, and as a result Rosstat, the agency …

Russian elites, reform, and the West

January 4, 2022 I have made my position on "off ramps" for Putin very clear since the very beginning: there should be none. But for the Russian elites, the story is more complicated. Putin's rule depends on internal conflicts among the so-called "Kremlin towers" -- that is, among elites organized by various "clans". Putin's strength …

Will the Russian Federation fall apart?

December 16, 2022 Human emotions can be quite the rollercoaster ride. From the depth of despair ("Kyiv in 3 days") when the war began, many analysts have now swung to irrational exuberance ("Russia will fall apart"). I, of course, have broached the subject of a possible disintegration of Russia too -- and very early on …

Lies, damned lies, and stupidity: Gfoeller & Rundell in Newsweek

December 13, 2022 I have seen my share of very bad analysis and amplified Kremlin propaganda about this war, but the recent article by Gfoeller and Rundell in Newsweek manages to stand out even in this crowd for its mendacity, disinformation, and unadulterated stupidity. The authors assert that "lessons from the U.S. Civil War show …

A dive into support for war in Russia (and the US)

December 10, 2022 I my last post I noted some trends in opinion polls in Russia, but it seems to me a closer look might be warranted to understand how the read them and what they mean. Even though public (lack of) support for the war in Russia is unlikely to be the critical determinant …

The Pope goes full racist: on the whitewashing of collective guilt

November 29, 2022 The Pope's responses to the Russian invasion of Ukraine have been generally OK-ish, if a bit confusing. But this response to a straight question asking him to explain why is a sight to behold: Let's start with the highlighted portion, which singles out Buddhist Buryatya and Muslim Chechnya for being "the cruelest" …

Countering the Russian narratives

November 13, 2022 With the liberation of Kherson now a fact, it is time to ask what might be happening next. While many expect the coming winter to create a lull in the fighting, I do not believe it will -- the weather might slow down operations, but they will certainly continue, and that's because …

Russia is never as strong as we fear, or as weak as we hope

October 28, 2022 There is an increasingly widespread, and popular, narrative in Ukraine and in the West that Putin realizes he's losing the war, has taken relatively extreme measures -- unthinkable until recently (mobilization, re-creating penal battalions, moving the economy to wartime footing) -- to slow this down because he fears the impact a defeat …