ZSU’s strike on Makiivka: It’s happened before, and will happen again

Originally on FB, January 2, 2022 By now everyone knows that while Putin and Surovikin were launching their terrorist strikes on Ukrainian cities for 3 days in a row, ZSU attacked numerous Russian depots, HQs, and troop concentrations. While most of the strikes were in Zaporizhzhia, the one people are talking about is the attack …

Russian elites, reform, and the West

January 4, 2022 I have made my position on "off ramps" for Putin very clear since the very beginning: there should be none. But for the Russian elites, the story is more complicated. Putin's rule depends on internal conflicts among the so-called "Kremlin towers" -- that is, among elites organized by various "clans". Putin's strength …

The West is still fighting the wrong war

December 28, 2022 It has now been ten months of war in Ukraine, and the West still seems hell bent on fighting the war it wants the war to be rather than the war it actually has on its hands. Although cautious voices warn about this being a protracted war of attrition -- I have …

Problems with morale in the Ukrainian military? Not really

December 24, 2022 A few days ago, news broke out about Ukraine's parliament bill 8271 that increases the penalties for military personnel who leave their positions without an order, desertion, or refusal to implement orders. There's an online petition for Zelenskyy to veto this, but Zaluzhnyi and the High Command insist that the legislation is …

A Russian attack from Belarus might be coming in just a few days

December 22, 2022 We have been monitoring the activities of the Russians in Belarus, and noting that they have been stockpiling forces there for a while. From December 22, the authorities have restricted entry to the border regions in Gomel Oblast. The Belarusian sources have been reporting near constant transport of men and equipment toward …

Lies, damned lies, and stupidity: Gfoeller & Rundell in Newsweek

December 13, 2022 I have seen my share of very bad analysis and amplified Kremlin propaganda about this war, but the recent article by Gfoeller and Rundell in Newsweek manages to stand out even in this crowd for its mendacity, disinformation, and unadulterated stupidity. The authors assert that "lessons from the U.S. Civil War show …

A dive into support for war in Russia (and the US)

December 10, 2022 I my last post I noted some trends in opinion polls in Russia, but it seems to me a closer look might be warranted to understand how the read them and what they mean. Even though public (lack of) support for the war in Russia is unlikely to be the critical determinant …

Russia is, for now, the insurmountable obstacle to peace

December 5, 2022 It has been a while since I've written an update on the war, and now several recent events have prompted some analysis. The events in question: recent surveys about support for the war in Russia (both public-sourced and leaked internal to the Kremlin), the continuing fallout of the misstep by a host …

Washington Post publishes another call to surrender to Putin

December 2, 2022 My happiness of seeing my long-suffering op-ed appear in the Union-Tribune today was destroyed by the Washington Post publishing an outright call to capitulate to Russia by some unknown to me "specialist" named Robert Wright. Comrade Wright has thoughts: "If an enduring peace can be had through negotiation — and we won’t …

Walt lectures us on “dispassionate” analysis — maybe he should learn to think

November 29, 2022 God help me, there's another diatribe by Stephen Walt in his house outlet, Foreign Policy, and it's as bad as one has come to expect. This time, the old wine of nonsense he peddles with Mearsheimer & Co. is packaged in a new bottle -- a call for dispassionate analysis. The problem …