Western Support & the Gerasimov Offensive

January 20, 2023 The West is at risk of failing Ukraine. It seems strange to write this amid all the hoopla about unprecedented levels of military aid that the collective West has committed to Ukraine, but it's a case of a too little, too late. Or, hopefully, not too late, but late enough to make …

Nuclear Weapons and Ukraine: The Deterrent that Never Was

January 9, 2022 I had drafted this post a while back because I have often heard the argument that "had Ukraine not given up its nuclear weapons, this war would never have happened." It always takes a while to explain why this is not so -- and yes, once again, Mearsheimer was wrong about this …

The West is still fighting the wrong war

December 28, 2022 It has now been ten months of war in Ukraine, and the West still seems hell bent on fighting the war it wants the war to be rather than the war it actually has on its hands. Although cautious voices warn about this being a protracted war of attrition -- I have …

Problems with morale in the Ukrainian military? Not really

December 24, 2022 A few days ago, news broke out about Ukraine's parliament bill 8271 that increases the penalties for military personnel who leave their positions without an order, desertion, or refusal to implement orders. There's an online petition for Zelenskyy to veto this, but Zaluzhnyi and the High Command insist that the legislation is …

The Ukrainian Nation

September 15, 2022 Ukraine is being baptized by fire, and will emerge as a nation defined not by ethnicity, culture, or even language but by the defense of the homeland. Everyone who rose to the challenge in this dark hour will be Ukrainian. This is why I've been saying that the closest analogue we have …

The Forever War: Why is there no Ukrainian counter-attack?

August 14, 2022 I do not, as a general rule, read much Western press about the war in Ukraine. It's not that the information is bad (it's actually often very well sourced and documented), and it's not it's biased (god knows, there are authors shilling for both sides, although in general I think it's pretty …

The war grinds on while Russia’s near-abroad erupts in turmoil

June 20, 2022 It has been several days since my last update, so it's time for some analysis of the war in Ukraine and its global repercussions. As usual, we begin with an operational update, starting from the North, with Kharkiv. Unfortunately, the RFA has made some small advances toward the city, which has now …

Putin’s boa constrictor strategy vs West Cunctator

June 16, 2022 It has been over a week since the last war update, and there is not a whole lot new to report in front developments. There have been some predictable events as the war nears the end of its fourth month -- exhaustion is setting in on both sides, and right now the …

Russia is bogging down, schism in the Church

May 29, 2022 I did not write any updates for a few days because, like everyone else, I am in a holding pattern -- waiting to see when the Russians will call it quits on the Easter Offensive, and whether they will achieve any of the much-reduced goals of the invasion. There have been very …

Ukrainian and Russian Nazi collaborators in WWII

May 6, 2022 Quite a lot of Russian propaganda centers on Stepan Bandera, with the derogative "banderovtsi" (Banderistas) being used interchangeably with fascists and Nazis. (Kadyrov's fighters in Ukraine are hunting for Bandera, and just recently claimed to have killed him. He died in 1959.) This is not a post about Bandera but about the …