Send the tanks!

January 7, 2023 Why has the West "suddenly" decided to cross the "red line" with Western-made tracked IFVs (Bradleys, Marders, etc.)? Putin and Lavrov both confirmed what I had been saying forever: Russia is not interested in any peace that does not give it conquered territories -- all that nonsense about NATO expansion and protecting …

The West is still fighting the wrong war

December 28, 2022 It has now been ten months of war in Ukraine, and the West still seems hell bent on fighting the war it wants the war to be rather than the war it actually has on its hands. Although cautious voices warn about this being a protracted war of attrition -- I have …

A dive into support for war in Russia (and the US)

December 10, 2022 I my last post I noted some trends in opinion polls in Russia, but it seems to me a closer look might be warranted to understand how the read them and what they mean. Even though public (lack of) support for the war in Russia is unlikely to be the critical determinant …

It does not matter what happens, Putin must be given a slice of Ukraine: Walt in FP

November 17, 2022 It really does not matter what happens in this war, Walt and his ilk just want Putin to have Ukraine. The Russians invade (see? we told you! NATO is to blame), Russia captures nearly a third of Ukraine (Kyiv in 3 days, let Putin have it!), Russia stalls (don't help Ukraine, we …

Countering the Russian narratives

November 13, 2022 With the liberation of Kherson now a fact, it is time to ask what might be happening next. While many expect the coming winter to create a lull in the fighting, I do not believe it will -- the weather might slow down operations, but they will certainly continue, and that's because …

Endgame

September 25, 2022 The war in Ukraine is fast approaching the moment of truth -- the series of events that will tell us what the eventual outcome is likely to be. Putin's situation is desperate, and is getting worse by the hour: while the mobilization didn't create the social explosion many analysts were predicting, it …

Putin decrees mobilization

September 21, 2022 The war in Ukraine entered a new, and very dangerous, phase. This morning, Putin went on TV with a pre-recorded message and decreed mobilization for Russia. He also indicated that the Kremlin will accept the results of the forthcoming referenda (so annexations will happen), and threatened the West with nuclear weapons. Defense …

The Fifth Month of the War in Ukraine

July 19, 2022 Hi Friends. It has been over a month since the last blog entry, but this was not because I stopped writing -- all my posts (multiple per day sometimes) went to Facebook -- but because the developments were so incremental, they would not have been of general interest. We have now accumulated …

Putin’s boa constrictor strategy vs West Cunctator

June 16, 2022 It has been over a week since the last war update, and there is not a whole lot new to report in front developments. There have been some predictable events as the war nears the end of its fourth month -- exhaustion is setting in on both sides, and right now the …

War of attrition and maneuvers in the succession struggle

June 8, 2022 We begin, as has now become usual, with an operational update. Please bear in mind that in this war of attrition, daily developments should be interpreted with caution -- breakthroughs are unlikely for either side, towns and villages are likely to change hands multiple times, and the important thing is to keep …